The Week Ahead: The Investors Best Crisis Strategy

It has been a rough week for both investors and traders after the surprising UK vote over a week ago. In the June 18th column "The Week Ahead: Is The Fear Trade Your Best Bet Now?" I made the case that investing based on a potential vote in favor of leaving the European Union was not a good idea. My market analysis at the time indicated that the "market clearly seems positioned for a No vote on June 23rd". It has been my experience that market shocks and Black Swan events must be viewed in the context of the market's long-term trend. When such events take place in bear market investors should have very light long positions in stocks so any damage should have a limited impact. The fact that the monthly NYSE Advance/Decline line made a new high in May and was acting stronger than prices provided strong evidence that the stock market's major trend was positive. So what can an investor do?